Presenter: Chihiro MIYAZAKI
In order to investigate the interannual variation of winter surface temperature in Asia at from middle to lower latitudes, EOF analysis was applied to standardized monthly surface temperature (Nov. - Mar.) from 1979/80 to 2002/03. The analyzed area is 40E - 160E and 60N - 10S. As a result, four principal components are adopted. The first component means the temperature contrast in the north/south of Tibetan Plateau. From the synoptic composite analysis of the 7 highest and the 7 lowest scores, this component coincide AO and NAO. On the second component, strength/weakness of the Siberian High is dominant. Especially, cold anomaly at the former half of 1980s is significant. The third component shows the temperature contrast between tropical western Pacific and the two areas of southern Japan and Arabian Sea. This component has relation to ENSO. The forth component denotes the signal of surrounded area of Tibetan Plateau and the opposite signs in the north and south of the plateau. This component seems to be influenced by the Plateau.
Presenter: Hatsuki FUJINAMI
In order to understand the relationship between the seasonal variation of the surface condition and that in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), an intensive observation was carried out during before and after Meiyu season of 2004 at Shouxian (China). In 2004 summer, Meiyu front did not appear continuously. Onset of the Meiyu was also ambiguous. Surface specific humidity, however, increased abruptly after around 14th June around Shouxian, and then large amount of the moisture is observed continuously. The rapid increase of specific humidity is associated with the passage of an eastward-moving disturbance (not Meiyu front). Around same time, surface vegetation changed into paddy fields. After that, atmospheric stratification became more unstable for moist convection. I'll report characteristics of seasonal variation in cloud activity and associated atmospheric structure during 2004 summer.
Presenter: Prasanna Venkatraman
This paper investigates the seasonal march of the summer monsoon through several different sub-divisions of the Asian monsoon region. Five data sets, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP), the upper-tropospheric water vapour band Brightness Temperature (BT), the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR), the lower tropospheric wind and Korean daily rainfall for 1980-1995, are used. Analysis shows that the largest area of deep convection in the global atmosphere is located over the tropical Indian Ocean-equatorial western Pacific; its centre being positioned 110°E along the equator in boreal winter and then moves northwestward to 80°E at 5°N in late July. In late April, the area of deep convection first extends northward into the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP). In mid-May it abruptly covers over the central South China Sea (SCS) region. After the onset of SCS monsoon, deep convection starts to develop northward along the eastern coast of China, East Tibet Plateau (ETP) and Indian sub-continent, simultaneously. Based on the analysis of BT and lower-tropospheric circulation, Asian summer monsoon can be divided into six inter-linked sub-regional monsoons. They are Indo-China Peninsula monsoon, SCS monsoon, South Asian (Indian) monsoon, ETP monsoon, East Asian (south China, lower Yangtze River and Japan) monsoon and Northeast Asian (north China and Korea) monsoon. In seasonal course, their onset periods take place in late April - mid-May, mid-May, mid-May - late July, mid-May - early June, mid-May - late June and late June - mid-July, respectively.
Presenter: Prasanna Venkatraman
Whereas some El Nino years are known to be associated with droughts in some parts of the globe, notably India, other El Ninos do not seem to be effective. Recently, it was observed that Unambiguous ENSOW (El Nino years, in which the Southern Oscillation Index minima and Pacific sea surface temperature maxima occurred in the middle of the calendar year) were better associated with droughts. This association was checked for rainfalls in South Asia and China. Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and East Asia (comprising of the People’s Republic of China and adjacent regions, including India) showed a good association of Unambiguous ENSOW events with droughts. Thailand, Malaysia and the whole Philippines showed some association; but the northwest Philippines showed opposite results. To find a rational for this criterion, it was checked whether such events were in any way related to the timings of the El Nino events. In general, El Ninos active during the main rainy season (June-September for all India's summer monsoon rainfall) were better associated with droughts. But some events did not fit this pattern. Also, many yearsnot having El Ninos were associated with droughts. Thus, the El Nino relationship is not clear-cut and predictions based on the same alone are likely to go wrong more often than not, as in the case of the recent El Nino (1997).
Presenter: Manabu ABE
Because I would like to investigate vegetation's changes associated with the climate change due to the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, I have studied the method to select new vegetation types. I am going to introduce the rlated studies, and present my plan for selection of vegetation types.
Presenter: Yoshiyuki KAJIKAWA
I'm studying the relationship between solar and monsoon activity lately in cooperation with Dr. Fujita at Graduate School of Environmental Studies. I'll introduce the short paper

"Solar influence on the Indian Ocean Monsoon through dynamical processes"
By K. Kodera, Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted,

with the outline of our work in next Monsoon Saloon (Nov. 22). This paper shows the interesting processes between solar and monsoon activity in decadal time scale. That is, the solar influence on monsoon activity is not due to a change in radiative heating in the troposphere but originates from the stratosphere circulation anomalies. I also intend to present some results of my analysis.
Presenter: Hiroki ICHIKAWA
Abstract: The space-time characteristics of diurnal rainfall activity are investigated over the Indonesian Maritime Continent by utilizing TRMM PR data for 5years. The prominent diurnal cycle with distinct land-sea contrast are observed associated with complex sea-land breeze and mountain-valley wind . Over Borneo and New Guinea, rainfall activity persists until midnight from afternoon while Sumatra experience only a daytime rainfall. Over New Guinea, stratiform rainfall exceed convective rainfall amount in nighttime hours. The low level environmental flow influences the diurnal cycle of islands. Over Borneo, rainfall activity exhibit a eastward (westward) propagation from midnight to morning during westerly (easterly) over the whole island, which caused leeward enhancement in rainfall amount. The advection in moist static instability can contribute to this island scale propagation. The rainfall propagation is accompanied by strong convection, while the characteristics of developed storm are different between land and sea region. The propagation over the whole island observed in rainfall, unstable filed, and actual cloud activity suggest that the island can form large atmospheric disturbance, which is flown to east or west with containing local land-sea convection. Leeward propagation of convection can be observed not only Borneo, but other around islands.

Presenter: Hiroki ICHIKAWA
Abstract: Diurnal variations of rainfall activity over Indonesian Maritime Continent are examined by utilizing high resolutin TRMM PR and GMS IR data. Large diurnal variations exist over islands and their adjacent regions related to land-sea breeze and complex orograghy.
Over Borneo Island, rainfall activity show the eastward moving on westerly day while the westward moving on easterly day after midnight, which appeared most clearly over northern part as propagating rainfall system which travel from the central mountain to adjacent ocean at about 6-8m/s. These movements of rainfall activity cause daily accumulated rainfall increase over leeward side of the island. Same rainfall activity can be observed over Ner Guinea Island though the influence is less than that over Borneo.The leeward propagating cloud cluster exists not only Borneo Island but also other small islands during eastward-propagatinting large disturbance passage.

Presenter: 堀川真由美
Abstract: タイ北東部のKhon Kaenにおいて、水蒸気の観測を目的に、
3時間毎の可降水量の推定を行い、Knon Kaenにおける季節変化や日変化等の

Presenter: 藤波初木
Abstract: 2002年8月中旬〜下旬にかけて、宮古島、下地島において境界層、
Presenter: 梶川義幸
南シナ海の対流活動について日平均OLRをIndex にして季節内変動の
経年変動を解析した。wavelet 解析の結果を交えて結果を報告する。
『wavelet 解析とはなんぞや』も解説する予定である。